Preface

The time when this brochure was written was a very unfavourable one for determining both the more remote and the immediate perspectives of the world situation. Several factors that are important for gauging developments cannot be determined at this time. They are:

The American boom is at an end. But it is impossible at this time to say whether the sharp dec1ine of the boom during the month of April is only a passing phenomenon or the beginning of a crisis. If the latter were the case, a new proof would thereby be furnished to demonstrate our contention that capitalism is, on the whole, on the decline.

The Report of the Experts’ Commission (Dawes) has been published; likewise the acceptance in principle both of the Powers of the Entente and of Germany. But will an understanding really be arrived at on the basis of this report? Will not the militaristic imperialistic policy of Poincaré gain the upper hand, which fact would lead to a new catastrophe of the mark, since the Rentenmark, an artificial creation, would by no means be able to withstand such a blow?

The outcome of the harvest is of very great importance for shaping the course of the market during the ensuing business year. For the moment the prospects for the harvest are pretty poor in Middle Europe, especially in Germany. A decidedly poor harvest would put an end to the sparse beginnings of a recovery of business in Middle Europe.

It is also unclear what the relation of Russia toward the capitalistic states will be in the immediate future.

These and many other factors cannot be estimated at this moment with reference to the influence they will exert.

But it is doubtful whether a later moment would show less fluid conditions. The only stable thing in this period of crises is the uncertainty, the chaos!

E. VARGA Berlin, May 5, 1924.