III. (2)

There is a tendency in Germany for the centre of gravity to shift westwards. Lübeck still keeps some of the glory of the old days when it was head of the Hanseatic league, but it has now but 82,000 inhabitants. Two lines can be drawn across the map to indicate the maximum density of population: one from Aix-la-Chapelle to Breslau goes from the foot of the mountains to the centre of Germany, the other follows the Rhine Valley from the Swiss frontier to the mouth of the Rühr. Berlin has 1,888,000 inhabitants, Hamburg 705,000, Munich 500,000, Dresden 476,000, Leipsig 456,000, Breslau 422,000. Breslau is the only town east of Berlin with more than 400,000 inhabitants; of eight towns with more than 200,000, Stettin is the only eastern one. Berlin stands midway between the eastern and western frontiers of Germany, but the living forces are all to the west; the Emperor, regarding them with suspicion, tried to counteract them and prevent their expansion.

The agrarian policy of the Government was expounded by Posadowski, the Home Secretary, at a meeting of the Reichstag, on February 23, 1905, as intended to balance the impatient and “hysteria” of German public and political life by the agricultural interest which he called “the solid anchor of the ship of state”; the stable element of agriculture was to act as a counterpoise to the floating population of the towns which formed the unprecedentedly large Radical majority in the Reichstag. He admitted that such a policy, aimed against the representatives of trade and manufacture involved an increase in the cost of living; and though he did not say that the Government imagined that such a result would enlist support, he did, like Mr. Chamberlain at Glasgow, affirm categorically that it would raise wages.

Von Bülow’s argument against the Socialists from the example of France was really brilliant. “They tax wheat,” he said, “and yet wheat is a much more important item of diet in France than it is in Germany.” As a matter of fact, the German wheat crop in 1903 was only 70 million cwt., an allowance of 124 cwt. per 100 inhabitants, while in France it was 440 cwt. per 100. Germany imported 44 million cwt., or 62 per cent. of the total consumption, while the export was negligible in amount; and this made an allowance of little more than 1 cwt. per head. Adding a quarter to arrive at the ordinary ration of the French soldier, and allowing for the lower diet of women, children, and old people, the German allowance of bread is only 275 lb. instead of nearly 790 lb., the normal French allowance.

Wheat, which does not grow at all in the north, is a luxury in Germany. For a long time the staple food of Central Europe was oats, now it is rye in Germany, which can be grown on the poor land and bare hillsides which are not fit for wheat, but even of that there is not a sufficient supply. Germany imported 8,800,000 metric tons in 1902-3, and 3 millions tons in 1903-4.

Potatoes, difficult to transport, are used for distilling as well as for food; they are grown over 11/2 million acres, an area twice as large as that devoted to them in France. Germany is not self-sufficing. In 1903 the import of agricultural produce was 154 million cwt., worth £51,050,000, and in 1904, 146 million cwt., worth £50,900,000; while the export was only some 20 to 24 million cwt., worth £7,000,000 to £8,000,000; i.e., 14 per cent. of the imports. Mr. Noel said: “Germany’s herds have improved, for imports have declined.” As a matter of fact, there might be many other causes for a decline in the imports, which have, however, as a matter of fact, not declined: between 1892-1902 they increased from £950,000 to more than £3,650,000.

The incidence of Customs duties received some attention in Germany: from a comparison between corn prices in London and Berlin, Professor Conrad, of the latter university, established an excess of the Berlin prices as follows:—

The price of rye on arrival at Dantzig rose as follows when placed on the German market:—

Of course, in Germany, as in France, it is said that the consumer of bread does not feel the Customs dues on corn or flour: but Professor Hirschfeld, in a monograph on the prices paid for flour and rye-bread in Berlin between 1886-1895, and Dr. Paul Mombert, in a book called “The Annual Burden laid on the Workman by the Corn Taxes,” have proved that the price of the product depends on the price of its raw material. A tax on rye of 35s. per ton takes 4·5 per cent. from the income of a workman’s family of ten, and the figures prove that duties on food are a bounty on small families.