VII.: The course of exchange influenced by various causes.

62. A demand for bills upon a particular place, may proceed from various causes; but these are chiefly reducible to the ballance of trade upon the whole, or between particular places. Bullion, like other commodities, traverses through different climes, and is ever of least value where it most abounds. Spain and Portugal being the chief sources from whence this commodity is drawn to the rest of Europe, it is there cheapest and their chief staple; and hence, in the usual phrase, the ballance of trade and the course of exchange will be every where against them. This is natural, and is no more to their prejudice, than it would be to the English to have the ballance against them, if the money of Europe was tin; as would then be the case, because we have the most considerable mines of that metal. In like manner, and for the same cause, it is natural that the ballance of trade, and with it the course of exchange, between the more southern and the northern parts of Europe, should be in favour of the latter; and this in general is the matter of fact.

The business of exchange between England and Germany, and the northern countries is chiefly transacted at London and Amsterdam. The course of exchange then between us and Holland, indicates how the state of accounts stands between us and all those countries in general, but not in respect of any one in particular. The ballance of our trade to Holland may be greatly in our favour, and yet the exchange to Amsterdam be generally against us; both which are supposed to be matters of fact. Our debt to foreigners operates in the same manner as a ballance of trade against us, to the whole amount of the dividends owing to them; and the same is true as to all foreign subsidies. If those dividends paid to foreigners contribute to enlarge our manufacturies and exports, our loss is thereby alleviated; but if they do not, that is, if our commerce remains in statu quo, we are losers to their whole amount, and that equally whether their produce is exported in goods or bullion; if they are sent in goods, they prevent so much bullion from coming to us. This is an affecting consideration, and the sources of this country must be prodigious great to be enabled to sustain so great a burden. But let us not be too secure, and neglect a matter of so much importance.